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Outcome risk

You can lose if the event resolves against your shares. Market prices are not guarantees, and implied probability can be wrong.

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Rule ambiguity

Ambiguous market wording can lead to disputes or unexpected outcomes. Read the rules, evidence standard, end time, and invalid conditions before trading.

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Resolution risk

Optimistic resolution depends on proposals, disputes, bonds, and resolver decisions. A final result may differ from what most traders expected.

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Partial fill and boundary risk

Large trades may only partially fill if they hit liquidity or price boundaries. This can leave you with less exposure than expected. Boundaries are part of the market design. They help avoid unlimited one-sided LP exposure, but they also mean a trader may not receive the full size requested.

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LP tranche risk

Event LPs choose tranches with different risk depths. Shallow tranches can stop participating earlier. Deeper tranches can remain exposed in extreme market states.

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Exclusive group risk

Mutually exclusive groups introduce relationships across several child markets. A position can be affected by group conversions, group settlement, and other outcomes in the same group.